1987 Fleer – Post War Cards

When you ask a collector to name a Larry Bird card, odds are they will either mention the 1980 Topps Bird, Erving, Johnson triple, or his 1986 Fleer card since they’re two of the most expensive. But collectors who tackle multiple basketball sets will tell you what a tough find a nice 1987 Fleer #11 Larry Bird is.

It’s widely accepted that the 1987 Fleer set was printed in significantly lower quantities than its 1986 Fleer predecessor. So that already limits the population of Larry’s card in what is a pretty popular set. Then, when you inspect the population report, you will find that the card is super tough to find in high-grade condition.

Of 3075 graded (August 2024), there are only 33 10s (387 9s and 1195 8s). Less than 1% of Bird’s 1987 Fleer cards are Gem Mt 10s. When you compare that to other cards in the set with over 1k regular grades, you can see that only Barkley has a (slightly) more difficult hit rate with PSA 10s. However, the Bird is slightly tougher when combining PSA 9 and 10 populations.

25/3000+ Barkley’s have graded PSA 10, 46/2000+ Ewing’s, 58/3200+ Johnson’s, 215/19500+ Jordan’s, 153/2400+ Malone’s, and 40/3000+ Olajuwon cards.

The Larry Bird is such a tough grade because so many copies have poor centering and registry issues. But why is that? The common belief has to do with the set being printed in 132-card sheets, with 12 rows of 11 cards across. Bird, card #11, was believed to be the last card in the top row (upper right corner), which means it was susceptible to cutting problems.

Despite my reach on social media and throughout the hobby, I couldn’t find a photo of an uncut sheet for a long time. But then I was forwarded a link to a bunch of images from Christopher Sanchirico’s collection, and he owned one! Unfortunately, the image size is small, but you can see the Bird in the upper right corner. In the image’s description, he wrote, “This is one of the only uncut sheets to ever have surfaced from this year (correct me if I’m wrong). Super rare, very colorful, and over 30 years old!”

Next, you can see a pair of miscut Bird cards.

1987 Fleer #11 Larry Bird – Off Center / Miscut

Even the first of the three PSA 10 Birds pictured below looks surprisingly off-center for a perfect 10 grade.

With the surge and dip of the basketball card market over the past few years, it’s a bit tough to say what these high-grade 1987 Fleer Birds are valued at now. PSA’s Auction Prices Realized for the card show the last two sales being $3,300 in November 2022 and $3,750 in September 2022, but they were over $5k in February 2021 (up to $7500). Those 10s were between $1000 and $1500 between August and November 2020 and about $1200 in May 2020. PSA 9s sold for between $260 and $339 this summer, but they were around $140 in May 2020. PSA 8s have settled around $45, which is where they were in May 2020.

Larry Bird is one of the NBA’s all-time greats who achieved every career highlight or award the league has. His popularity continues today, as seen in the demand for his cards. And while you can’t go wrong adding a 1980 Topps or 1986 Fleer Larry Bird card to your collection (they’re pretty liquid in high grade), his 1987 Fleer card will be a bit more challenging for the condition-focused collector.

1986 Fleer basketball cards have become some of the hobby’s most popular collectibles, driven by Michael Jordan’s iconic card #57.

But many people don’t realize that the 1986 Fleer basketball set was a bit of a dud on release and was treated as “junk wax” for its first few years. Because of this, many deduce, the inferred evidence supports, and some conversations lead us to conclude that Fleer printed the 1987 basketball cards in far lower numbers than the 1986 cards. In the following paragraphs, I’ll share the current thoughts in the hobby about 1986 and 1987 Fleer basketball print runs.

Let me start by saying that all I’m trying to do is piece together some hobby history; Fleer never released print run information directly. No one documented this sort of information, and the people who worked for Fleer or other card companies weren’t necessarily collectors who saved this data; it was just a job for a lot of people.

Earlier in the decade, in 1981, Topps stopped making basketball cards because they were so unpopular, and boxes of Fleer’s 1986 release didn’t sell well either, often not even going for $10 at retail locations, despite being sold directly to dealers for $9 ($108/case).

A collector on a forum noted that a shop owner offered him the 10 1986 Fleer basketball boxes collecting dust on his shelf for $5/box. And I’m told that Fleer also offered full-value refunds for unsold cases. Other collectors and dealers stated you could get them inexpensively in high supply at shows over the next few years.

Reed Kasaoka said that in the late 1990s, a Fleer executive told him that they printed 250k of each card in the 1986 Fleer set (~6400 cases), but based on really disappointing sales numbers, they cut the production rate in half for the 1987 set. And most dealers from this time believe something similar.

Additionally, PSA’s population report is a solid guide as there have been nearly 5x as many 1986 Fleer as 1987 Fleer cards graded. Of course, some of that disparity is based on value after grading, but that’s a huge difference. Plus, at times over the past few years, high-grade 1987 Fleer commons have commanded >$100 prices (when you could grade these cards for $6/each).

In an article about the 1987 Fleer set, Steve Taft noted that there always seemed to be more 1986 Fleer around. One of the set registry collectors agreed, saying that for every box of 1987 Fleer, he saw a lot more 1986s for sale. I also see a lot more 1986 Fleer cards and boxes for sale than 1987 Fleer. A while ago, I searched for “1986 Fleer Basketball” (with some filtering) on eBay, and it returned almost 14k items, while a search for “1987 Fleer Basketball” returned under 8k items – knowing there is some overlap based on people writing “1986/87” in the title.

I don’t think the ‘people are hoarding Fleer product’ argument holds much water here. The hobby, as a whole, was booming by 1986, and there have been a lot of times when the 1986 set was pushing higher in price that would have induced people to sell (Beckett’s first guide, the Bulls championships, Jordan’s retirements, and comebacks, etc.). If a collector had the wherewithal to hoard 1986 Fleer, they probably would have saved some 1987 Fleer, too.

In the end, we won’t ever really know how many of each set Fleer printed or how many were returned, thrown out, or saved. However, the stories from dealers and collectors support the notion that Fleer made a lot fewer 1987 basketball cards than 1986. The print run also tells us that the popularity of the 1986 set is primarily demand-driven (no surprise, Jordan is the GOAT). We also shouldn’t be as surprised with 1987 Fleer basketball’s ascending prices over the past few years since they’re more supply-limited.

If you’ve heard stories about the 1986 or 1987 Fleer basketball print runs, please share them in the comments.

The Condition Sensitive 1987 Fleer #11 Larry Bird Card

A Brief Discussion About 1986 and 1987 Fleer Basketball Print Runs